Another personal piece of writing. How I hate these but they act as a kind of catharsis. While doing a course on religion with the International Centre for Journalists, I realised how divisive religion still is. I also realised that I love my God, adore Him and yet I feel scared talking about religion. Why?
There are a myriad of reasons for this.
As I go through my journey in life I get more and more convinced that religion will be exploited and abused. My fear of religion may have been subconscious so far but now the urgency with which it seeps into my conscious being is perhaps the BP Oil spill rate - perhaps faster.
Why? Im Hindu, I am living in one of the most advanced countries in the west. Why fear? I was brought up in a Catholic environment-having studied all my life in privilaged private Catholic schools run by Irish nuns. I learned catechism and went to the church etc. I know Christianity as much as Hinduism. So why fear? What about the west should or is scaring people?
I can only say its the feeling more than the articulation of facts behind my fear that is important. Somehow we easteners - have an inherent intutive consciousness that could perhaps be a substitute for the over rationalisation in the western culture. I fear in over rationalisation we are either hiding something or are missing the simple links.
I guess being a kashmiri Pandit ( for the less initiated in Hinduism, it is the highest caste in the stratified Hindu world of class and religion ), I have always been more spiritual than religious. Hinduism in any case does talk about the essential spirit of being a Hindu as one who is a good Christian, a good Jew, and all the other religions ). Vivekananda is worth more than a read.
I guess India instead of rising up to its yogic and spiritual leadership potential just sunk into the quagmire of regional politics and the confusion of its own growth run amock. Now in a world dominated by economic and social chaos, religion may find it difficult to speak its own independent language. Religion as practised by some extreme groups from various religions is just helping those that want to create a human divide for specific political reasons. That is why it must be stopped. Protest must be silent as epitomised by Gandhi.
Kashmir, not just now but for ages has been one of the most turbulent places on earth. I guess that has to do with its combination of geopolitical, strategic placement on the physical contours of our earth as also with its breathtaking beauty. Majestic, untrammelled, beckoning, luring. Most of all the intellectual and academic contouring of its human masses.
Nestled deep inside me I guess is the fear of generations of Kashmiri pandits, hunted down and mowed to bare existential proportions as a race. As a child you are conditioned especially if your small dwindling numbers keep coming under attack. But as I grew up and was exposed to this as yet beautiful multicultural world of ours, the fear subsided till one day I paid the heavy price of defying ancestral knowledge and getting lured by all encompassing humanity into believeing that these were just old men's tales.
Being the daughter of a journalist with illustrious credentials, I was always wanting to outshine. I followed in the footsteps of my father and becamse a fearless outspoken critic of vested political, business, social interests. No one told me that journalists can no longer be fearless. I thought as any young journalist that no one could touch me. Uppercaste ruling elite Kashmiri Hindu woman, I tried to keep reaching beyond every limit. Little did I know that as I aimed for the stars in the sky, my gaze fixed upwards, was oblivious to movements on the ground.
As a reporter I started covering my birthplace and though it was business and political journalism, I knew I was a Hindu minority in a muslim state and had to be trail blazingly honest. Like every journalist my dream was to meet and interview all those "Islamic fundamentalists" who wanted complete seperation from India. Along the way I met and interviewed people from the establishment as well.
I cared a damn. It was a story and I had to get to speak to these men and understand their psyche. I interviewed many of them and many times felt the shadow of state presence. I cared a damn - I was a Hindu. I could not go wrong. India is a majority Hindu state. This arrogance cost me. Journalists I realised could no longer claim to be a brand apart from decisive politics practised by governments. They may have their own compulsions but I never understood those. I dont understand them even now.
While covering Kashmir I realised that political uprisings have roots in economic deprivation, marginalisation. Somewhere the political system had gone wrong and now it was all about the rift between Muslims and Hindus. Yet I kept on highlighting the battered state of the economy, the isolation of the government from its people, the casting aside by muslim politicians of their own muslim constituents. At the peak of elections, there was no face to the politician asking for votes. Thousands of expectant voters but politicians too scared to venture out. Yet the elections kept taking place.... and those that were the privelaged ... those that were in with the elite clique..... (nothing unique to India)..... kept winning. And underneath the surface the simmering kept getting intense till it had to burst one day. Perhaps the scenario was more complex as there were outside countries involved as well. Perhaps I'm being too simplistic, perhaps....
The one lesson, journalists themselves must beware of is aspersions being cast on them for reasons far from obvious. This new religious war is far too expensive for media as it is in its present day and form to win....
That breaks my heart. Nothing breaks my heart more than innocent victimisation. The machinery of journalism is worn and itself in the hands of those that run the other machinery. Im scared for journalism and I'm scared for democracy. That is why now more than ever we as journalists need to be cautious in reporting Islam or any other religious issue. Most of all we need to fight for openess.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
A leaky dilemna
What is playing out in the Gulf Of Mexico had been envisaged in a 2008 CRS report for members of the U.S congress. Titled 'Oil spills in U.S coastal waters, background governance and issues for Congress', the report warns that America may have lost its expertise and institutional knowledge to effectively respond to a major oil spill.
One of the sources of this conclusion perhaps was the 'After Action Report' by the U.S coast guard after completion of its 2004 Spill of National Significance (SONS) exercise. Here are some extracts from the report: 'Oil spill response personnel did not appear to have even a basic knowledge of the equipment required to support salvage or spill clean up operations.There was a shortgae of personnel with experience to fill key positions. Many middle level spill management staff had never worked a large spill and some had never been involved in an exercise. As a result some issues and complex processes unique to spill response were not effectively addressed."
The 2008 CRS report expresses concern about a possible increase in oil spills considering that oil production and import are expected to rise and with this the transportation of oil domestic or international to refineries and ultimately to the consumer. The report states that American pipelines remain a major source of worry. "American oil pipleine infrastructure is old and in some areas pipleines are operating well beyond their intended service life". Most of the U.S oil imports (55%) arrive via the Gulf Coast. Of the oil spills within the coast guard jurisdiction (marine and coastal area) nearly 50 per cet of the incidents and the volume spilled have been in the Gulf Of Mexico and its shoreline states. The Gulf must surely remain an area of special attention.
What is worrisome is the fact that coast guard data on recorded spills from facilities and pipelines does not match the actual numbers happening out there both on land and at sea.
The BP blow out must shine the spotlight on other seepages minor or major offshore or onshore like those from abandoned or orphan wells.Reports clearly indicate that operators may not have the required funds to properly shut down offshore oil platforms at the end of the facilities operating life or while idling. As with many onshore wells, this potential problem is exacerbated by the steady transfer of offshore leases from major oil companies to independents as production declines. Despite bonding requirements, public liability remains a concern.The General Accounting Office conducted a detailed study in 1993 examining offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. GAO’s estimates for the full cost of dismantling platforms and plugging wells under the OCS program ranged from $4.2 to $4.4 billion. Yet, surety bonds in place covered only 1.6 percent of this prospective liability. According to MMS, total offshore liability has since risen to approximately $5.5 billion, of which approximately $1 billion is covered by surety bonds.Although the coverage ratio has risen from 1.6 to 18 percent over the past years, the potential public exposure tops $4.5 billion.
The cost of coverage ranges from one to four percent of the bonded amount depending on factors like drilling equipment reseves left underneath the well, amount of collateral. However, the one percent cost applies only to financially strong operators with full collateral for the coverage. A two percent rate is the realistic minimum for the independents. There are fears that these firms will make up the bulk of the unfunded liability in the Gulf. Based on a premium rate of two to four percent, addressing the liability shortfall would cost existing producers $53 to $106 million per year.Currently, the federal taxpayer bears this liability.
How many of the existing abandoned/orphaned oil facilities are leaking oil into the water?
Some may argue smaller amounts of oil leaking into the Gulf should not be a cause of concern. Chronic low level exposure to oil contaminants can significantly affect the survival and reproductive success of marine birds and mammals. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) have confirmed that oil pollution concentrates of as low as one part per billion could stunt pink salmon growth and cause other chronic health problems for the fish. The NMFS has also confirmed that the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill will continue to kill or damage future generations of pink salmon
Clearly government needs to have a fresh look at these and other related issues keeping in mind that even an international oil company like BP underplayed the possibility of an under water blow out,though such occurances are not out of the ordinary. More surprising that despite the oil pollution act of 1990 BP had no plans on how to respond to a worst case scenario though the act clearly states that the owner or operator of a vessel or facility must have these plans. Congress did not intend for every vessel to have on board all the personnel and equipment needed to respond to a worst case spill but vessels must have a plan and procedures to call upon, typically through a contractual relationship, the necessary equipment and personnel for reponding to a wrost case spill.
The act extended the role and scope of the National Contingency Plan, establishing a multi layered planning and response system to improve preparedness and response to spills in marine environments. Among other things the act also requred the President to establish procedures and standards for responsing to worst case oil spill scenarios.
Clearly there has been failure at more than one level.
Add to this the statistical knowledge sitting with government departments that in recent years annual spill volumes from offshore facilities in federal waters have increased and a vast majority of these spills have taken place in the Gulf Of Mexico.
And despite all the noise by the U.S state governors in the wake of the recent deep water spill, the precise volume and incident frequency in state waters is difficult to determine. Reportedly oil spills in state waters account for twice the oil discharges of activities in federal waters. Majority of the oil extraction operations are located in state waters off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.
One of the sources of this conclusion perhaps was the 'After Action Report' by the U.S coast guard after completion of its 2004 Spill of National Significance (SONS) exercise. Here are some extracts from the report: 'Oil spill response personnel did not appear to have even a basic knowledge of the equipment required to support salvage or spill clean up operations.There was a shortgae of personnel with experience to fill key positions. Many middle level spill management staff had never worked a large spill and some had never been involved in an exercise. As a result some issues and complex processes unique to spill response were not effectively addressed."
The 2008 CRS report expresses concern about a possible increase in oil spills considering that oil production and import are expected to rise and with this the transportation of oil domestic or international to refineries and ultimately to the consumer. The report states that American pipelines remain a major source of worry. "American oil pipleine infrastructure is old and in some areas pipleines are operating well beyond their intended service life". Most of the U.S oil imports (55%) arrive via the Gulf Coast. Of the oil spills within the coast guard jurisdiction (marine and coastal area) nearly 50 per cet of the incidents and the volume spilled have been in the Gulf Of Mexico and its shoreline states. The Gulf must surely remain an area of special attention.
What is worrisome is the fact that coast guard data on recorded spills from facilities and pipelines does not match the actual numbers happening out there both on land and at sea.
The BP blow out must shine the spotlight on other seepages minor or major offshore or onshore like those from abandoned or orphan wells.Reports clearly indicate that operators may not have the required funds to properly shut down offshore oil platforms at the end of the facilities operating life or while idling. As with many onshore wells, this potential problem is exacerbated by the steady transfer of offshore leases from major oil companies to independents as production declines. Despite bonding requirements, public liability remains a concern.The General Accounting Office conducted a detailed study in 1993 examining offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. GAO’s estimates for the full cost of dismantling platforms and plugging wells under the OCS program ranged from $4.2 to $4.4 billion. Yet, surety bonds in place covered only 1.6 percent of this prospective liability. According to MMS, total offshore liability has since risen to approximately $5.5 billion, of which approximately $1 billion is covered by surety bonds.Although the coverage ratio has risen from 1.6 to 18 percent over the past years, the potential public exposure tops $4.5 billion.
The cost of coverage ranges from one to four percent of the bonded amount depending on factors like drilling equipment reseves left underneath the well, amount of collateral. However, the one percent cost applies only to financially strong operators with full collateral for the coverage. A two percent rate is the realistic minimum for the independents. There are fears that these firms will make up the bulk of the unfunded liability in the Gulf. Based on a premium rate of two to four percent, addressing the liability shortfall would cost existing producers $53 to $106 million per year.Currently, the federal taxpayer bears this liability.
How many of the existing abandoned/orphaned oil facilities are leaking oil into the water?
Some may argue smaller amounts of oil leaking into the Gulf should not be a cause of concern. Chronic low level exposure to oil contaminants can significantly affect the survival and reproductive success of marine birds and mammals. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) have confirmed that oil pollution concentrates of as low as one part per billion could stunt pink salmon growth and cause other chronic health problems for the fish. The NMFS has also confirmed that the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill will continue to kill or damage future generations of pink salmon
Clearly government needs to have a fresh look at these and other related issues keeping in mind that even an international oil company like BP underplayed the possibility of an under water blow out,though such occurances are not out of the ordinary. More surprising that despite the oil pollution act of 1990 BP had no plans on how to respond to a worst case scenario though the act clearly states that the owner or operator of a vessel or facility must have these plans. Congress did not intend for every vessel to have on board all the personnel and equipment needed to respond to a worst case spill but vessels must have a plan and procedures to call upon, typically through a contractual relationship, the necessary equipment and personnel for reponding to a wrost case spill.
The act extended the role and scope of the National Contingency Plan, establishing a multi layered planning and response system to improve preparedness and response to spills in marine environments. Among other things the act also requred the President to establish procedures and standards for responsing to worst case oil spill scenarios.
Clearly there has been failure at more than one level.
Add to this the statistical knowledge sitting with government departments that in recent years annual spill volumes from offshore facilities in federal waters have increased and a vast majority of these spills have taken place in the Gulf Of Mexico.
And despite all the noise by the U.S state governors in the wake of the recent deep water spill, the precise volume and incident frequency in state waters is difficult to determine. Reportedly oil spills in state waters account for twice the oil discharges of activities in federal waters. Majority of the oil extraction operations are located in state waters off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Joe's and Mary's and senseless cities!
As I walk the giant portals of the world's famous cities, decadence and a lack of coherence. Time’s passage through civilisation gets frozen in static images of repetitive models. Every city emulates standing towers reaching out heavenward, Progress marked by sameness. Lurking behind the iconic towers, the emblems of a growing divide, the shanty towns! These are 21st century cities divided into ghettos of colour, race or social stature. They walk a future not of amalgamation but further sub stratification. I am your ordinary man and do not ask me to shut up and go somewhere else with my woes. Even if I leave, you will see millions nay billions standing behind. Do you have the time and the energy and the resources to shoo us all away - strewn as we are across crowded global cities. As long as a few morsels go down our gullet there is a quiet. The hope of a better tomorrow always quietens the remonstrances of today. Now we see the city structure stuttering and so with nothing more to loose and being the first to lose more than anyone else, we rise up once again even amidst bellowing smoke and organised structure. It’s perhaps in your interest to not gamble the quiet away and however small keep the crumbs falling our way. We believe in capitalism and democracy more than you...we still have dreams to fulfill... wonder why we are not there as yet. you should be cynicalyou've seen it all. From New York to Dubai to Singapore it’s not just the growing divide that is a common binding thread. There’s something more... wait...first more of the same. Ah! It’s the same human developmental model shaping the world from the foothills of the Himalaya’s to the slopes of the Rockies. Here different is weird. It’s the Wal-Mart model, one size fits all. Yet there is a difference. It’s the difference of perception of who we are. Somehow this may shock a few westerners, but it’s time everyone evaluate the double standards in their own back yards. Are we attributing to each of our civilisations too much self worth? The belief in the superiority of the west overwhelming only in so far as those subjected to unfair stealthy double standards keep a hushed quiet,? In the East, open turbulence. In the east backwardation...In the west still a simmering underbelly belching out once in a while to keep itself from exploding. In the west the feeling that all that glitters is not gold. Behind the savvy lies the insecurity and greed. A city in the deep north! The silos look familiar or are they more insulated? No effort to hush the whispers. Looks and gestures encircling the lives of lesser mortals. No way to ever unleash untruths spun. The divide is deep. Fortressed walls making it hard to decipher the humming within the inner circle. Here what passes through the underbelly of the cities high life is revered, Who cares its second hand. It’s titillating .Cities decadent living off sordid details of some unknown’s personal life! Half truths spread by entrenched institutions that benefit from it all. And the more they spin the freedom mantra, the tighter the invisible grip on those that inhabit the fringe .But only the fool hardy will try to unmask the veil. Not just the men and women of colour, those that thought they could find true liberation from now left behind structured tyrannical institutions and those that already had been left behind within the city by generations of ostracism and neglect. Yet the vice like circle of buddies and power brokers and rule setters and institution gatekeepers share a secret. It’s the secret that no matter how close to them you stand, you can never decipher. Theirs is an impregnable world. Yet those that see the half smiles and the knowing glances fathom they are being trivialised. But here it’s not for them to act and question. For them it is to accept or die under the shadow of an ominous half truth that has already blanketed their lives. To be your own person here means you have to live beyond the circle, on the periphery. Here the divide is far greater than between the rich and poor. The more I push north, into the land of freedom for all, the worse the divide. The silos multiply in numbers and depth. Yet any whimpering any questioning by them that perceive themselves at the centre of the cities random talk are relegated to the la’la land. Hush no one fights the power structure .Never mind people friendly institutes meant to preserve the common man. There are common men there who have risen above their station and at no cost want to start once again from scratch. They are all one coherent whole and to fight one means fighting all. There is another facet to these cities. Those meant to keep the chaos at bay, those empowered to prevent the anarchy have mastered the blame game. But can those that were to guarantee smooth running and compliance be absolved. By their very essence corporations are meant to make profit and we know that as much as we know that governments are elected only to keep in check the inherent greed of corporations and if they fail they are more to be blamed because their charter is prevention. Yet as we talk of the government why do we construe just a political party. The government is much more. Parties are accountable, fearful of the electoral wrath and are sitting atop a permanent structure inherited year after year no matter what party wins its way to power. So the year after year layered government support structure remains faceless, nameless and blameless. Is that fair? The difference between the I that is part of the chaotic crowd and the I that is part of the ruling elite is a thin line. The I that is part of the chaotic crowd got pushed to the periphery because of his or her inability to play tag to those that formed the ruling elite. Before you earmark me left of centre or even left, pause and think. Is it fair that you and I and the countless numbers absolve ourselves of the blame by slinking away into the crowd and crying out for our rights when we were the ones who were in - charge? My apologies to those who may find this blog offensive. The purpose of this blog is to reach out to the finer aspects of human thought and sensibility. Attacking government and corporations is the latest fad. But look close, look deep and answer, 'who forms the government, who forms the corporations'. It’s the Joe’s and the Mary's - the you and I’s of the world.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Spill baby Spill
Way back in 2000, the Pacific States Oil Spill Task Force sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Transportation warning it of the threat of a major or even catastrophic spill in U.S waters. The letter cautioned the government that,"current capability to respond to such a spill warrants further consideration".
One of the recommendations of the task force was that 'the U.S Coast Guard (USCG) stress preparedness by emphasizing unannounced drills, performance standards in addition to planning standards and large scale regional, equipment deployment drills .'
Giving details of the risk assessment report, the letter spoke specifically of oil pollution from offshore exploration especially in deep waters, far from shore. "The further offshore, the more coastline will be impacted,' the report added. It said,"spill response planning for offshore platforms should be focused on those areas in the U.S. being aggressively leased and explored i.e, the Gulf Of Mexico and Alaska. The USCG should reevaluate the area plans for these regions to ensure that there is adequate response equipment and capability to deal with a blowout scenario".
Suggestions also included, a regional approach, the need to maintain a "trained cadre of personnel and raise, if necessary, the cap on the Oil Spill Response Fund. It also pointed out to the lack of organised, coordinated information collection effort across Federal Agency lines.
Like other studies before and after, this seems to have filled up void electronic spaces in government offices.
The current liability for a spill in the U.S rests with the responsible party. So the government can afford to absolve itself. However the same report had warned the government that "maintaining a viable capability within the private sector is becoming less cost effective in a business sense. The advisability of augmenting the government's role in marine salvage should be considered'.
So, what could have been a well planned and well practised response to a well envisaged emergency is turning out to be yet another exercise in learning. Cure through trial and error even as 210,000 gallons of oil gush into the Gulf of Mexico every day!
Imagine a hospital operation theatre and a surgeon trying to experiment with various surgical procedures even as the patient lies dying there. At the end of the day the legal rights of the surgeon may trump over those of the dead patient and the doctor may go Scot free.
In my opinion the U.S government is as responsible as the oil company B.P for this poor show of who's in charge and what needs to be done when push comes to shove.
Here are some more reasons why there should be frustration at the government response :
Too much ambition or perhaps greed for profit on the part of BP? After the Wall Street debacle, this is not much of a surprise. Yet after Exxon Valdez and Katrina, the government (and the government is huge though all the blame, going by press coverage and the propensity to ask questions like, "has the President spoken to the BP officials?, nestles on the shoulders of the President and not the respective departments) can offer little explanation as to why every time when catastrophe strikes it's caught off guard. Perhaps its time the US government start coming forward as the mammoth structure that it is and stop taking shelter, when disaster strikes under the White House umbrella.
Coming back to British Petroleum. The company, has a history of cost cutting especially in the area of maintenance. The 2007 Baker report into the Texas city blast questioned British Petroleum safety performance and its willingness to implement lessons learnt from previous serious accidents including the one in Grangemouth, Scotland in the year 2000. The panel emphasised that short term cost cuts were apparent in both cases. A report from the chemical safety and hazards investigation board (CSB) said that there was an iron clad case for pinning some of the responsibility on budget cuts. The report pointed out that between 1992 and 2000 there was an 84 per cent cut in maintenance spending at Texas city.
Keeping the task force report in mind and BP's track record and the fact that drilling in such deep waters is a recent exercise, extra precautions/inspections needed to be taken.
- Reportedly, drilling in the depths of Gulf of Mexico is a different game altogether than what BP is used to- having operated mostly in Alaska and North Sea. Both are relatively simple.
-The sheer geological complexity of Gulf of Mexico particularly around mobile salt and trapping and imaging problems created by the mobile salt make exploration difficult in the GulfAn interview given a few years back talks of the ambitious plan of BP and how they saw an opportunity to transform the business. "Instead of sustaining production of 200,000 barrels of oil a day,we would potentially grow a business that could deliver 500,000 barrels a day". Deeper exploration pushed production levels and the target was to keep pushing for higher and higher daily production. Was the deep water horizon oil rig built with these additional capabilities? Of course now there are reports of accidents and how the rig, drilling the world's deepest offshore well, may have suffered a structural fault in one of the accidents.
Did any of the government departments bother to check the implications of all this?
David Rainey, exploration manager for BP in the deep water Gulf of Mexico in a March 2002 interview said, "one of the lessons we have learned about the Gulf of Mexico is never to take it for granted. It will continue to surprise us .. we are going to do our best to stay humble and avoid the trap of thinking we have all the answers.'
Little did he know at that time how prophetic these words would turn out.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Fact or Fiction? You Decide!
As the night approaches its first preteen hour, I step out for a breath of fresh air. The thin silvery sliver in a well lit sky belies my dark mood. As is my wont, I try to find a dark corner to communicate. Difficult task- even the school playground is so well lit. There are so many lights everywhere, its difficult to hide. Yet I had to find a dark spot- just to mingle with the dark. Do you know why just an open school playground with a few lights would not do?
Perhaps its my disdain of electronic prying eyes! Perhaps its the human shadows always wanting to know, leaving no stone unturned to prowl even the deep dark recesses of dingy mundane human existence.
Strange that I should be writing this blog- Being a business journalist most of my life, I hate unfolding my personal thoughts except on scraps of paper tucked away in unkempt plastic bags in some dark corner of my house. By now you may have understood my relationship with the dark. The dark never betrays you or so I thought!
Anyway, coming back to my story. Eventually I decided to brace a bit of light and trace my steps back and forth in the school playground. What the hell - I could always duck the standing posts reflecting their ugly yellow halo ! That's precisely what I did. I squatted on the grass - just so that I diminished my physical stature and evaded the circumference of artificial human light.
Glued to my ears my faithful i-pod. Lethal combination of raw emotion, blocked senses and a gaze transfixed beyond the human world. I was safe now and could be myself- just myself and yes confident that I had evaded the relentless electronic eye.
My dear reader I am the sorts who has always learnt what is the simplest lesson for others, the most difficult way. Call it naivety or a lack of faithful comprehension of the complexities of modern world - I have many times fallen with a thud.
I am also getting convinced that there is the hunter and the hunted. The more you look and behave like a deer, the more hunted you are. Is it the deer's fault, I keep debating with myself? Never found the answer to that one.
Yes, indeed Im going to take up this battle with the God's but first I have to go through this life.
Ah! again I diverted. So coming back to my story. Suddenly, in- fact barely a few minutes into my squatting position I saw a helicopter hovering in the sky. I did not bother- why should I? Woe! I should have. In an instant the helicopter was descending and a flood of light from the front of the helicopter, seered the playground. It was as if a hundred thousand bulbs were flashing. I was mooted - thinking this must be a falling meteor. But just a minute back I thought I had seen the helicopter high up in the sky- how could it get converted to this ball of white light descending from the sky? I am normally brave but this was not normal. I ran for dear life and vow! the light followed me . Were these aliens ? Honest to God that flashed in my mind!!!! The other thought that flashed was perhaps it's a meteor or a huge star falling from the sky.
It is difficult to explain how low the helicopter was flying, how powerful the lights were and how dedicated they were in following me across the field. I felt like a trapped deer running from a thousand traps. I ran up a steep hillock and down and up and down and thought it was my imagination that the helicopter was following me. I must be mad to think that someone would be following an inconsequential me - and that too in a well known school playground.
After a minute I was convinced I was in Iraq and the horror of it all- that they may strike me from the sky !!! This could not be Edmonton. Some strange quirk of fate must have transposed me to Iraq or Afghanistan.
All this was passing through my mind in those two minutes which seemed like an eternity. So many emotions and scenarios flashed in my mind and I realised what it must be for thousands and thousands of poeple being haunted day in and day out by the helicopters of powerful nations in their own homeland. This could not be happening to me. This was a public place and I was doing what I do everyday- visiting the school park - albeit this once not walking but sitting on the grass and listening to music. It was not even eleven in the night. I was wondering whether I should - instead of running, fall flat on the ground. All survival techniques flashed through my mind! I wasnt sure what to do.
Suddenly I saw a similar flashlight on the ground and for a moment I thought it was another helicopter. However I realised it was a human being flashing a powerful beam of light on me. It took me sometime to realise it was perhaps the police and I was being told to lie down on the ground and show them both my hands. I was numb. I fell flat on the ground and showed up my hands. I was wondering if they would shoot me or perhaps taser me and once again my mind travelled to Iraq and Afghanistan and I thought of the humiliation of decent men and women who perhaps have to go through this many times over and sometimes many times over in the length and breadth of the same day.
The police officer came close and asked me why I was running. I told her I was scared. She was young and humane and beautiful and so polite. I was glad she was kind to me and explained that the helicopter in the sky belonged to the police and they were on some errand. That I should not run the next time as they would get the wrong signal. I did not mind her doing her job. Is that what its come to! Monitoring well lit parks at ten in the night. How safe is our city? This in a part of the city that is one of the safest- or so they say.
Im convinced no one can escape the electronic eye-its omnipresent!
One day perhaps I'd have mastered it enough to give it the slip. Sorry I wont share that secret lest Im tracked down!
Freedom, freedom, freedom. Ah freedom in a free land. Ah for an inch of truely free land. Is there any left? No wonder I seek the solace of darkness. But now I know better. Or do I? If its a choice between a dark solitary corner and a repeat of this experience, I'd rather choose the latter.
To watch the sky from a dark corner of the earth is truly the essence of my freedom! So what if I have to squat!
I told you I am naive or perhaps I love the freedom of defiance! But I promise you the next time I get into trouble, I will not ask for your sympathy. This once its surely mine.
Perhaps its my disdain of electronic prying eyes! Perhaps its the human shadows always wanting to know, leaving no stone unturned to prowl even the deep dark recesses of dingy mundane human existence.
Strange that I should be writing this blog- Being a business journalist most of my life, I hate unfolding my personal thoughts except on scraps of paper tucked away in unkempt plastic bags in some dark corner of my house. By now you may have understood my relationship with the dark. The dark never betrays you or so I thought!
Anyway, coming back to my story. Eventually I decided to brace a bit of light and trace my steps back and forth in the school playground. What the hell - I could always duck the standing posts reflecting their ugly yellow halo ! That's precisely what I did. I squatted on the grass - just so that I diminished my physical stature and evaded the circumference of artificial human light.
Glued to my ears my faithful i-pod. Lethal combination of raw emotion, blocked senses and a gaze transfixed beyond the human world. I was safe now and could be myself- just myself and yes confident that I had evaded the relentless electronic eye.
My dear reader I am the sorts who has always learnt what is the simplest lesson for others, the most difficult way. Call it naivety or a lack of faithful comprehension of the complexities of modern world - I have many times fallen with a thud.
I am also getting convinced that there is the hunter and the hunted. The more you look and behave like a deer, the more hunted you are. Is it the deer's fault, I keep debating with myself? Never found the answer to that one.
Yes, indeed Im going to take up this battle with the God's but first I have to go through this life.
Ah! again I diverted. So coming back to my story. Suddenly, in- fact barely a few minutes into my squatting position I saw a helicopter hovering in the sky. I did not bother- why should I? Woe! I should have. In an instant the helicopter was descending and a flood of light from the front of the helicopter, seered the playground. It was as if a hundred thousand bulbs were flashing. I was mooted - thinking this must be a falling meteor. But just a minute back I thought I had seen the helicopter high up in the sky- how could it get converted to this ball of white light descending from the sky? I am normally brave but this was not normal. I ran for dear life and vow! the light followed me . Were these aliens ? Honest to God that flashed in my mind!!!! The other thought that flashed was perhaps it's a meteor or a huge star falling from the sky.
It is difficult to explain how low the helicopter was flying, how powerful the lights were and how dedicated they were in following me across the field. I felt like a trapped deer running from a thousand traps. I ran up a steep hillock and down and up and down and thought it was my imagination that the helicopter was following me. I must be mad to think that someone would be following an inconsequential me - and that too in a well known school playground.
After a minute I was convinced I was in Iraq and the horror of it all- that they may strike me from the sky !!! This could not be Edmonton. Some strange quirk of fate must have transposed me to Iraq or Afghanistan.
All this was passing through my mind in those two minutes which seemed like an eternity. So many emotions and scenarios flashed in my mind and I realised what it must be for thousands and thousands of poeple being haunted day in and day out by the helicopters of powerful nations in their own homeland. This could not be happening to me. This was a public place and I was doing what I do everyday- visiting the school park - albeit this once not walking but sitting on the grass and listening to music. It was not even eleven in the night. I was wondering whether I should - instead of running, fall flat on the ground. All survival techniques flashed through my mind! I wasnt sure what to do.
Suddenly I saw a similar flashlight on the ground and for a moment I thought it was another helicopter. However I realised it was a human being flashing a powerful beam of light on me. It took me sometime to realise it was perhaps the police and I was being told to lie down on the ground and show them both my hands. I was numb. I fell flat on the ground and showed up my hands. I was wondering if they would shoot me or perhaps taser me and once again my mind travelled to Iraq and Afghanistan and I thought of the humiliation of decent men and women who perhaps have to go through this many times over and sometimes many times over in the length and breadth of the same day.
The police officer came close and asked me why I was running. I told her I was scared. She was young and humane and beautiful and so polite. I was glad she was kind to me and explained that the helicopter in the sky belonged to the police and they were on some errand. That I should not run the next time as they would get the wrong signal. I did not mind her doing her job. Is that what its come to! Monitoring well lit parks at ten in the night. How safe is our city? This in a part of the city that is one of the safest- or so they say.
Im convinced no one can escape the electronic eye-its omnipresent!
One day perhaps I'd have mastered it enough to give it the slip. Sorry I wont share that secret lest Im tracked down!
Freedom, freedom, freedom. Ah freedom in a free land. Ah for an inch of truely free land. Is there any left? No wonder I seek the solace of darkness. But now I know better. Or do I? If its a choice between a dark solitary corner and a repeat of this experience, I'd rather choose the latter.
To watch the sky from a dark corner of the earth is truly the essence of my freedom! So what if I have to squat!
I told you I am naive or perhaps I love the freedom of defiance! But I promise you the next time I get into trouble, I will not ask for your sympathy. This once its surely mine.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Sovereign debt
Nearly two hundred countries across the globe are spending borrowed money. Internal and external debt as a percentage of GDP is alarming. Consider that in the United Kingdom external debt alone stands at over 365 percent of GDP. With a snail speed annual GDP growth of less than a percentage point and a euro zone external trade deficit of 32.1 billion euros, it is not difficult to comprehend the debt trap that is building up on this front. The current economic global crisis appears small compared to what sovereign defaults could do. To put it in broader perspective, Iceland, Ireland, Germany and France have an external debt to GDP ratio of 998, 960, 185 and 237 percent respectively.
Add to that other debts like consumer debt. Grant Thornton research shows that the total outstanding UK consumer debt amassed through mortgages, loans and credit cards has increased by 7.3% to 1,444 billion pounds over the past year, up from 1,346 billion pounds in June 2007
Personal debt has forged ahead of UK GDP.
United States external debt stands at 95 percent of GDP and consumer debt is nearly 2 trillion. Additionally total household mortgage debt is nearly 7.8 trillion.
This does not include other debts like Implicit debt which in many countries is not even earmarked in government coffers.
One would expect structural changes to be enforced on these economies. Yet the IMF and rating agencies like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s remain silent. Why then the double standards? Do we need new institutions with more objectivity and lesser association with the developed world? If the sovereign rating of these countries is downgraded who would lend them money and more importantly what rate of interest would they end up paying? What would be the impact on their top notch companies? High interest pay outs alone could have negative impacts on these governments and organisations.
Consider the recent example of Greece that issued a 5 billion euro bond. The Greek ten year bond yield is 6.6 percent compared with 3.2 per cent for the German bond. As more and more governments tap the open market to borrow, money will become even more expensive. In Europe alone, the Greek will be tapping the market soon for another 70 billion and the Spanish treasury needs to raise 76.8 billion Euros through debt issuance this year. Britain may follow soon and who knows who else. Yet instead of talking about the pressure this will put on borrowers, the higher cost of borrowing which is only going to get worse, Ms Angela Merkel of Germany spoke of oversubscription of the Greek bond as good news and a sign of confidence in the Greek nation. Perhaps the German and French banks who scooped up the issue will make a killing on it.
The increasing risk of Greece defaulting on its debt has pushed up the price to insure $10 million of Greek bonds 42% - from $282,000 in early January to more than 400,000 in February —there will be institutions that will profit from a default. Trading credit default swaps has already begun
Germany and France have called for a crackdown on what they see as speculators amplifying Greece's problem by short-selling CDS contracts based on the country's sovereign debt.
So what happened to the new financial framework that the G-8 was talking about?
Meanwhile the social uprising in Greece is an example of how difficult it will be to introduce economic reform and austerity measures in the developed world.
What happens if at some point in time future, governments cannot pay up? Will they be forced to sell off assets. There has been mention (by a prominent German at least) that Greece should sell its islands instead of tapping the debt market. That is telling !
Iceland referendum rejecting plans to repay Britain and Netherlands is an example of what could be yet another outcome.
Perhaps we need new caps on government borrowing. For instance a country debt to reserve ratio or a cap on borrowing.
Remember the mean restructuring of Latin American economies as also the Asian economies – tens of thousands were rendered jobless, tens of thousands more were thrust below the poverty line and governments in these countries were forced to hammer down much of the public sector to its last nails. Not to mention across the board structural changes before even a penny was handed out.
No such reform in the Euro zone economies or the United States!. The trend seems to be borrowing more and spending more and when it comes to job creation, a top U.S economist said the other day on CNN that she was certain that the next big employment wave was not sitting atop the Green economy. ” We do not know where the next set of jobs will come from”, she added. Scary that no one is actually in charge out there. Everything is chance and market dynamics. There is no thought process in determining future economies and yet we are funnelling billions into the economy to create jobs. Hope at least some jobs will outlast the recession.
So if no one is directing economic growth towards a particular path why spend money within and outside of the government in forecasting, risk management, project assessment etc. Let us just wait for things to happen themselves and in the process save public money.
The interview was an eye opener and a reminder that the world’s economic health needs better doctors. Needs diagnosis and cure and not just waiting for chance to get us ashore. Something has failed in a complete Laissez fare and perhaps its human morality.
Thank God the Yuan is undervalued. Imagine the repercussions on purchasing power of common people if the Yuan were to become stronger overnight! Who cares China has an artificial advantage. Thanks God their economy is doing well –giving us someone to do business with !
Add to that other debts like consumer debt. Grant Thornton research shows that the total outstanding UK consumer debt amassed through mortgages, loans and credit cards has increased by 7.3% to 1,444 billion pounds over the past year, up from 1,346 billion pounds in June 2007
Personal debt has forged ahead of UK GDP.
United States external debt stands at 95 percent of GDP and consumer debt is nearly 2 trillion. Additionally total household mortgage debt is nearly 7.8 trillion.
This does not include other debts like Implicit debt which in many countries is not even earmarked in government coffers.
One would expect structural changes to be enforced on these economies. Yet the IMF and rating agencies like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s remain silent. Why then the double standards? Do we need new institutions with more objectivity and lesser association with the developed world? If the sovereign rating of these countries is downgraded who would lend them money and more importantly what rate of interest would they end up paying? What would be the impact on their top notch companies? High interest pay outs alone could have negative impacts on these governments and organisations.
Consider the recent example of Greece that issued a 5 billion euro bond. The Greek ten year bond yield is 6.6 percent compared with 3.2 per cent for the German bond. As more and more governments tap the open market to borrow, money will become even more expensive. In Europe alone, the Greek will be tapping the market soon for another 70 billion and the Spanish treasury needs to raise 76.8 billion Euros through debt issuance this year. Britain may follow soon and who knows who else. Yet instead of talking about the pressure this will put on borrowers, the higher cost of borrowing which is only going to get worse, Ms Angela Merkel of Germany spoke of oversubscription of the Greek bond as good news and a sign of confidence in the Greek nation. Perhaps the German and French banks who scooped up the issue will make a killing on it.
The increasing risk of Greece defaulting on its debt has pushed up the price to insure $10 million of Greek bonds 42% - from $282,000 in early January to more than 400,000 in February —there will be institutions that will profit from a default. Trading credit default swaps has already begun
Germany and France have called for a crackdown on what they see as speculators amplifying Greece's problem by short-selling CDS contracts based on the country's sovereign debt.
So what happened to the new financial framework that the G-8 was talking about?
Meanwhile the social uprising in Greece is an example of how difficult it will be to introduce economic reform and austerity measures in the developed world.
What happens if at some point in time future, governments cannot pay up? Will they be forced to sell off assets. There has been mention (by a prominent German at least) that Greece should sell its islands instead of tapping the debt market. That is telling !
Iceland referendum rejecting plans to repay Britain and Netherlands is an example of what could be yet another outcome.
Perhaps we need new caps on government borrowing. For instance a country debt to reserve ratio or a cap on borrowing.
Remember the mean restructuring of Latin American economies as also the Asian economies – tens of thousands were rendered jobless, tens of thousands more were thrust below the poverty line and governments in these countries were forced to hammer down much of the public sector to its last nails. Not to mention across the board structural changes before even a penny was handed out.
No such reform in the Euro zone economies or the United States!. The trend seems to be borrowing more and spending more and when it comes to job creation, a top U.S economist said the other day on CNN that she was certain that the next big employment wave was not sitting atop the Green economy. ” We do not know where the next set of jobs will come from”, she added. Scary that no one is actually in charge out there. Everything is chance and market dynamics. There is no thought process in determining future economies and yet we are funnelling billions into the economy to create jobs. Hope at least some jobs will outlast the recession.
So if no one is directing economic growth towards a particular path why spend money within and outside of the government in forecasting, risk management, project assessment etc. Let us just wait for things to happen themselves and in the process save public money.
The interview was an eye opener and a reminder that the world’s economic health needs better doctors. Needs diagnosis and cure and not just waiting for chance to get us ashore. Something has failed in a complete Laissez fare and perhaps its human morality.
Thank God the Yuan is undervalued. Imagine the repercussions on purchasing power of common people if the Yuan were to become stronger overnight! Who cares China has an artificial advantage. Thanks God their economy is doing well –giving us someone to do business with !
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